Despite President Trump's claims that his trade war has created an "economic miracle," the facts tell a very different story. A growing body of evidence shows that the president's tariffs have actually hurt, not helped, the U.S. economy - a trend that appears set to continue in 2026 and beyond.
According to analysis from Foreign Policy, U.S. GDP growth in 2025 only reached around 2% - a far cry from the "booming" economy Trump has repeatedly promised. And the news only gets worse, as FactCheck.org reports, the revenue generated from Trump's tariffs falls woefully short of funding the administration's proposed initiatives, from defense spending hikes to debt reduction.
Tariffs Weigh on Consumers and Businesses
The core problem is that tariffs act as a tax on American consumers and businesses, driving up prices and reducing economic output. As the Tax Foundation has detailed, the average U.S. household has paid an extra $1,000 in 2025 and will pay $1,300 more in 2026 due to the tariffs. Overall, the weighted average tariff rate on imports has soared to 13.5%, the highest level since 1946.
What this really means is that the tariffs are acting as a drag on the economy, offsetting much of the potential benefits of the recent tax cuts. The Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs will reduce U.S. GDP by 0.5% over the next decade - a significant hit that could worsen if trading partners retaliate further.
A Gloomy Outlook for 2026
The bigger picture here is that the trade war is showing no signs of ending, and may even escalate in Trump's second term. With the U.S. Supreme Court soon to rule on the president's emergency tariff powers, 2026 could see an even more aggressive use of tariffs, further hampering economic growth.
In short, the facts are clear: Trump's tariffs have failed to deliver the economic miracle he promised, and are instead weighing heavily on American consumers and businesses. As the country heads into an uncertain 2026, the downside risks of the administration's trade policies appear to be growing.